Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
35
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto7 gen 25, 04:56 UTC1 gen 32, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRegole
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Volume totale
- 93,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 59,5K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 60,8K €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 32,3K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- Manifold Markets quota By Dec 31, 2030 al 99% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2032.
- Come viene liquidato When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).