Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
One-OffSociety & Culture3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 90%
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 22, 15:35 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
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KalshiRegole
This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott.
- It must be something where a significant number of Scott's friends, readers, and/or professional aquaintances are angry at him or want to stop associating with him.
- It must also be public enough that I hear about it through public channels.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030??
- Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott.