At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
One-OffSociety & Culture3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 89.2%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 22, 15:57 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegole
Shortly after market close, I will post a poll on Manifold asking "Do you personally believe that Scott Alexander is a highly unethical person, or otherwise have a strongly negative opinion of him?" Three options:
- I don't know enough about him to have a meaningful opinion
- I will resolve this market to the fraction of "Yes" responses / "No" responses.
- The poll will be limited to one response per manifold account, and will be anonymous.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.