At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
One-OffSocietà e cultura3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 89.2%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 22, 15:57 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
KalshiWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRegole
Shortly after market close, I will post a poll on Manifold asking "Do you personally believe that Scott Alexander is a highly unethical person, or otherwise have a strongly negative opinion of him?" Three options:
- I don't know enough about him to have a meaningful opinion
- I will resolve this market to the fraction of "Yes" responses / "No" responses.
- The poll will be limited to one response per manifold account, and will be anonymous.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
