At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
One-OffIA3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 19 ott 2026, 19:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 73.2%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto17 nov 22, 21:15 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
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If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
- Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time.
- It will ask:
- Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
- This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
- The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
