Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UcrainaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 94.5%
Previsori
86
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 21 minuti fa
5 feb 24, 11:43 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsX banned in any European country by December 31?
PolymarketWho wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Manifold MarketsEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?
- • This question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.
- • For the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.
- • Verification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.
- • Incidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- • This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.