Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ucraina2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97.4%
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14
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binary
Metodologia
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Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto8 nov 24, 17:24 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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FutuurWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRegole
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
- The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
- A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
- The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.