Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
PoliticaGeopoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneMedio Oriente2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90.7%
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40
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
12 mar 26, 20:05 UTC20 gen 29, 20:49 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
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Manifold MarketsWill Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
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FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegole
This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.
- If a nuclear weapon is confirmed detonated by the United States government, this market resolves Yes.
- This includes weapons testing (but not just hypothetical theories about Richter scale readings in Nevada).
- In order for a denied event (test or strike) to count, the evidence would have to be widely acknowledged by mainstream media, ie.
- CNN and WaPo and the BBC all saying that there was a seismic event AND a radioactive event AND major inside sources all saying the same thing.
- This can also resolve Yes if a US proxy uses a nuclear device with the Trump administration's confirmed approval and assistance, such as if the US provides Israel with a nuclear device and with intelligence to deploy it, which is then detonated.
