Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMedio OrienteRussia / Ucraina
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 50.9%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto16 ott 24, 11:20 UTC31 dic 50, 19:59 UTC
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As of the creation of this market (16 Oct 2024), the list includes three countries: North Korea, Iran, and Myanmar.
- It resolves YES as soon as Russia is added.
- For example, if Russia is added to the FATF black list and then removed later, this resolves YES anyway.
- If Russia ceases to exist, I will judge based on the period when Russia did exist.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a given country is Russia or not.
- For example, if Russia turns into many countries without a single clear successor, I will judge that Russia does not exist anymore, but if some national republics gain independence but otherwise Russia continues to exist (there is a clear single successor), I will judge that Russia still exists.
