Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 62.8%
No 62.8%Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto22 dic 23, 10:26 UTC1 gen 30, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Luigi Mangione publish a book before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nassim Taleb publish a new book in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Nilered publish a video where he turns air into diamonds by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Nilered publish a video about turning Lead into Gold by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
will Resolve YES: if a new book in the series of "what if" by Randall Munroe is out by 2030, even if the book is named something other than "what if 3" but focuses on answering hypothetical questions will Resolve NO: as long as he don't publish book with this focus will resolve no, even if he publishes books with different focus (such as "How to" or "thing explainer")