Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.4%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto7 apr 26, 11:20 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 44,4K €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.