Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 92.6%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto14 lug 26, 11:19 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-28.1pt48%
- 1530+0.1pt4%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 272,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 73,7K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.1pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt81%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt86%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,78%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- Google39%
- Microsoft32%
- SpaceXAI22%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 31,6K €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt88.3%
- Gemini+3.0pt4.5%
- ChatGPT-5.0pt1.8%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 41,7K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
- Tencent market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 93% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.