Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-Off2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 57.6%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 23 ore fa
Obsoleto1 giu 26, 14:36 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsThe context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
As agent frameworks mature, high-volume, low-cost "inference-optimized" or highly distilled models may completely take over background agent loops from high-cost frontier models.
- This market resolves to YES if, on December 31, 2026, each of the top 3 models individually costs less than $1.00 per 1 million tokens.
- For a model to qualify, the sum of its individual input price per million tokens and its output price per million tokens must be less than $1.00.
- If Model #1, Model #2, and Model #3 all individually cost under $1.00/M tokens, this market resolves to YES.
- If any model in the top 3 spots costs $1.00/M tokens or more, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolves based on the "This Month" filter of the OpenRouter LLM Leaderboard (openrouter.ai/rankings) on Dec 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT (-ish).