Will Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?
GeopoliticaOne-OffAmerica LatinaCriminalità e giustizia2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 92%
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Aggiornato 56 minuti fa
In ritardo15 gen 26, 00:08 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- Maduro was arraigned in U.S. federal court on January 5, 2026, with the next court date set for March 17, 2026.
- This market resolves YES if Maduro is convicted on any of the charges in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official court records and public announcements from the U.S. Department of Justice or the court.
- The market resolves NO if Maduro is acquitted, the charges are dismissed, or the trial does not conclude by the deadline.
- Maduro faces charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices.