Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
One-OffIARegolamentazioneAmerica LatinaRussia / UcrainaCinaMedio OrientePolitica commercialePolitica USA2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 03:24 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 93.4%
Previsori
38
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 37 minuti fa
15 giu 26, 14:03 UTC1 gen 27, 11:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have extended its europium export-control pause beyond November 10, 2026, as of December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2032)
Manifold MarketsUS Announces Diesel Export ban by which date?
PolymarketRussia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?
PolymarketRegole
The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.
- See https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access.
- The basic question I have is "Is something like this going to happen again this year?" There are other already-existing restrictions in place though, so here are more detailed resolution criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, at some point between now and the start of the new year, the US government takes a qualifying action (defined below) against any AI models belonging to a US company.
- The model must be a different model from Fable 5 or Mythos 5.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
