Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.9%
Previsori
42
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto2 gen 26, 03:19 UTC1 gen 27, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?
Manifold MarketsAI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO).
- However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study.
- Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The METR blog post from 2026-02-24 (uplift update) does not count as a qualifying study for this market, as the creator considers it an update on research direction rather than a full study.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study??
- Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO).