Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 86.6%
Previsori
82
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto26 dic 23, 22:37 UTC1 gen 32, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will I find AI hurts my job opportunities as an accountant before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
I work as a software engineer.
- A lot of my specialization is in being able to write good code, but AI has been getting better and better at that lately.
- I hope I maybe have a backup as working on AI because logically speaking it seems like AI research would be the "last job to get automated", but I also know a lot of non-AI coding, e.g. backend development, frontend development, programming language theory, data science, etc., and these skills might get obsoleted by AI.
- I'm not really good at ops work so I'm not counting that.
- Resolution criterion: If I subjectively feel that my opportunities for coding jobs have become worse due to AI, for at least 6 months duration starting before 2032, this market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032??
- Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2032.
- Come viene liquidato Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I work as a software engineer.