Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
IAOne-Off17aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 87.2%
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto25 dic 22, 21:09 UTC1 gen 44, 08:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsPrompt caching is seen as the wrong path for context management, in December 2026? [0.005 Seconds prediction]
Manifold MarketsWill Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4.
- It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market.
- The full prediction is:
- When AGI (artificial intelligence) comes, large language models like GPT-4 may be seen in hindsight as part of the eventual solution, but only as part of the solution. “Scaling” alone—building bigger and models until they absorb the entire internet — will prove useful, but only to a point.
- Trustworthy, general artificial intelligence, aligned with human values, will come, when it does, from systems that are more structured, with more built-in knowledge, and will incorporate at least some degree of explicit tools for reasoning and planning, as well as explicit it knowledge, that are lacking in systems like GPT.
- Within a decade, maybe much less, the focus of AI will move from a pure focus on scaling large language models to a focus on integrating them with a wide range of other techniques.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)?
- Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2044.
- Come viene liquidato Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4.