Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 9 set 2026, 05:08 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 79.6%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto15 set 23, 22:54 UTC1 gen 01, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Jose Luis Ricon have a daughter who becomes obsessed with longevity?
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 227,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 95,3K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 altri esiti
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- 28,6 Mln €
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
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- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
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KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
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- 1,6 Mln €
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KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
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- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 altri esiti
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- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Jose Luis Ricon have a daughter who becomes an alignment researcher?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Jose Luis Ricon have a daughter who becomes an alignment researcher?
- Will Jose Luis Ricon have a daughter who becomes an alignment researcher dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2101.