Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?
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Obsoleto8 mag 26, 20:02 UTC30 giu 32, 23:59 UTC
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A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).
- Resolves YES if, in calendar year 2030, traffic fatalities have NOT declined relative to each city's pre-commercial-launch baseline year in any of the 5 largest Waymo deployment cities.
- Resolves NO if at least one such city shows a decline relative to its pre-Waymo baseline.
- The 5 cities (locked in at market creation): Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta.
- Pre-commercial-launch baseline year: the full calendar year before paid public Waymo service began in that city.
- Resolution source: NHTSA FARS data, CY2030 vs each city's baseline year.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 74% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 giugno 2032.
- Come viene liquidato Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).