Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSan Diego 100%In testa tra 19 esiti
Previsori
37
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto1 dic 25, 22:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Waymo available in European Union before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?
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KalshiRegole
If the Waymo service area overlaps with the city limits at all, that's good enough.
- If only a minority of people have access, it will resolved based on whether any of them got this access by luck or signing up early, rather than by being Waymo employees, journalists, or famous.
- If the cars arrive with Waymo employees in them, or even in the driver seats, the answer resolves Yes if i can find any credible evidence of 1 trip where it's plausible the car was doing more than half of the driving work.
- If it's hard to find evidence of any such trips, it'll resolve No. When Waymo launches somewhere, that answer will resolve Yes.
- If they suspend service etc, it will still stay a Yes.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Kalshi — Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · Las Vegas, NV 87%
