Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 23 ott 2026, 23:42 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 96.5%
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1,976
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo31 dic 25, 00:31 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsWill USA change Iran regime
Manifold MarketsIf Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it.
- Qualifying scenarios may include:
- Military coup
- Voluntary abdication of power
- Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority