Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.9%
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto6 lug 23, 14:44 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves yes if: 1. there is a global ban on AI training runs larger than some threshold OR 2.
- AI alignment is solved OR 3. there is a large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030??
- Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves yes if: 1. there is a global ban on AI training runs larger than some threshold OR 2.