Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 11:41 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 94.9%
Previsori
27
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto3 gen 26, 03:11 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
FutuurWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution Criteria
- The Trump peace plan calls for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to surrender their weapons to an international peacekeeping force, with the second phase explicitly stipulating that Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone.
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that Hamas has verifiably surrendered a substantial majority of its weapons arsenal (including heavy weapons, rockets, and small arms) to an international force or third party, with independent verification of the disarmament.
- This includes destruction of weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure used for weapons storage or manufacturing.
- This market resolves NO if Hamas retains operational control of significant weapons stockpiles, continues active weapons manufacturing, or refuses to participate in verified disarmament by year-end 2026.
- A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10, 2025.
