Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 78.5%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto3 gen 26, 03:51 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Manifold MarketsWill the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174
- Resolves YES if at any point before EOY 2026, the articles available on Grokipedia exceed the amount of articles on Wikipedia's English site.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- In the unlikely event that either Grokipedia or Wikipedia shuts down, this market will be marked as N/A. Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Grokipedia and English Wikipedia have exactly the same number of articles at any point before EOY 2026, this does not count as surpassing and the market will resolve NO.
- Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Article counts will be determined using exact numbers unless the exact count is unavailable, in which case the creator will use the most accurate count available.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 79% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026??
- Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174