Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.6%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto29 dic 25, 23:49 UTC29 dic 26, 23:49 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Manifold MarketsWill NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegole
Main article, not talk page or internal page.
- Reference must remain for at least 1 month.
Mercati aperti
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 30,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 18K €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume totale
- 8,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7K €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 15,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume totale
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume totale
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume totale
- 136,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
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- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028??
- Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 29 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Main article, not talk page or internal page.