Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 04:28 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 81%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 minuti fa
In ritardo24 dic 25, 07:08 UTC31 dic 35, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
PolymarketWill China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
https://x.com/RyanFedasiuk/status/2003634067997409613?s=20
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China launches nine or more aircraft carriers by December 31, 2035. "Launch" is defined as the vessel having its official launch ceremony, not the date of the dry dock flooding or when it is commissioned into service.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese state media announcements.
- As of 2025, China has three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- A fourth carrier, the Type 004, has been under construction since 2024 and is expected to feature nuclear propulsion.