Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)?

Manifold Markets quota No al 89.5% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan before 2028.

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Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati

Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:15 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 89.5%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 ore fa

Obsoleto

19 giu 26, 10:32 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan before 2028.

I won't bet in this market.
Resolution is left up to Tumbles's judgement.
Feel free to ask questions about resolution, but be aware that ultimately resolution will be based on Tumbles's estimation of the spirit of the market.
Generally an invasion involves military mobilization and a very significant undermining of sovereignty by force.
As an example, I would count the capture of Maduro as an invasion because he was Venezuela's head of state and it involved overpowering Venezuela's military defenses.