Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 91.3%
Previsori
598
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto5 ott 22, 13:22 UTC31 dic 27, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsCondition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.