Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
RegolamentazioneIAOne-OffChinaEurope3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85.6%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto19 mar 26, 16:50 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Manifold MarketsWill the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?
KalshiWhich wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?
KalshiUK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country officially bans or heavily restricts the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution is based on official government announcements or legislation that explicitly prohibits or substantially restricts deployment of advanced AI systems (such as large language models, foundation models, or general-purpose AI systems).
- A "ban" means prohibition of use or deployment.
- A "heavy restriction" means requirements that effectively prevent widespread commercial use, such as: mandatory licensing with severe limitations, operational bans in key sectors, or restrictions requiring systems to be substantially modified or disabled.
- Restrictions on specific AI applications (e.g., biometric surveillance, emotion recognition) do not count unless they effectively prevent the use of advanced AI systems broadly.
Mercati aperti
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 96,6K €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria