Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 77.7%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto8 set 23, 19:32 UTC1 feb 27, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
António Guterres out by December 31?
PolymarketWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich of Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through the end of 2026?
FutuurTrump dies in office during his 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWill Antonio Guterres obtain a third term as UN General-Secretary?
Manifold MarketsRegole
António Guterres is the SecGen of the UN.
- His 2nd term began on 1st of Jan 2022 and will end in 2027.
- This will resolve as no if he does not complete his 2nd term for any reason - resignation, death, etc.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will António Guterres remain in office until the end of his 2nd term??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will António Guterres remain in office until the end of his 2nd term??
- Will António Guterres remain in office until the end of his 2nd term? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will António Guterres remain in office until the end of his 2nd term??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: António Guterres is the SecGen of the UN.