Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 62.7%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto6 apr 26, 01:19 UTC6 apr 30, 01:18 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)
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PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if the next novel published by Andy Weir contains a setting primarily located in outer space (e.g., aboard a spacecraft, on a planet other than Earth, or a space station).
- It will resolve to "No" if the narrative is set primarily on Earth.
- Resolution will be based on the official plot summary, author confirmation, or the published content of the book upon release.
- The market will resolve once the book is officially published or a definitive plot synopsis is released by the publisher or author via their official website (https://andyweirauthor.com/) or a major news outlet.
- Andy Weir, known for his hard science fiction, has confirmed in interviews (as of March 2026) that he is currently writing a new standalone science fiction novel.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
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- 9,1 Mln €
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- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 63% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space??
- Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space? dovrebbe risolversi il 6 aprile 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria