Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.5%
Previsori
63
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
11 set 26, 00:44 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How well will I do in puzzlehunts held in 2026? (See description)
Manifold MarketsWill non-EU cities catch up in terms of quality of life by 2035? [see description]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.
- Will an AI do Magic before the end of next year? (that we know of)
- The following things are considered magic:
- Standard temperature and pressure superconductor developed
- Factoring RSA-2048
- All of @jim's predictions come true
Mercati aperti
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.2pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 23,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 192,2K €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December7%
- September 30,1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 20,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+3.0pt88.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt6.9%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt3.9%
+5 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt69%
- November 3064%
- October 31-3.0pt45%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt25%
- October 31-1.5pt13%
- September 30+0.9pt4%
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–33944.1%
- 340–354+0.5pt23.5%
- 310–324+2.1pt17.6%
+4 altri esiti
- Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 82% al 12 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description] dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.