Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 78.6%
Previsori
245
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto17 feb 26, 04:15 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2027, Amanda Askell is employed at Anthropic, and holds a position of comparable influence to her current role writing Claude's constitution.
- If Askell has left Anthropic or been significantly demoted / sideways-promoted, the market resolves NO.
- If her role has evolved but maintains equivalent strategic influence over Claude's development and values, it resolves YES.
- (Description edited from AI generation.)
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 79% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027??
- Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2027, Amanda Askell is employed at Anthropic, and holds a position of comparable influence to her current role writing Claude's constitution.