Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.2%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 minuti fa
In ritardo13 apr 26, 09:04 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky have a debate for >$10k before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Examples that would resolve this market to "yes":
- An announcement by either Eliezer or Anthropic that he is involved in their research in some capacity.
- A paper is released co-authored by Eliezer and Anthropic.
- Eliezer joins Anthropic as an advisor or member of staff.
- Other ambiguous cases will be judged by me.
