Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.2%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto13 apr 26, 09:04 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky have a debate for >$10k before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Examples that would resolve this market to "yes":
- An announcement by either Eliezer or Anthropic that he is involved in their research in some capacity.
- A paper is released co-authored by Eliezer and Anthropic.
- Eliezer joins Anthropic as an advisor or member of staff.
- Other ambiguous cases will be judged by me.