Will all covid vaccines be pulled off the market before 2030?
RegolamentazioneOne-OffSalute e medicina3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.3%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
12 ott 26, 01:46 UTC31 dic 29, 11:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030, all COVID-19 vaccines lose regulatory approval, marketing authorization, or emergency use authorization (EUA) for commercial distribution in the United States, leaving no COVID-19 vaccine approved or authorized for sale or administration.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolution Details:
- "Pulled off the market" requires that no COVID-19 vaccine formulation (mRNA, protein subunit, viral vector, or other platform) retains active FDA approval or EUA for any demographic group in the U.S. The standard seasonal phase-out or replacement of older strain formulations with updated variant-matched vaccines does not trigger a YES resolution, provided at least one updated COVID-19 vaccine remains approved/authorized and commercially available.
