Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 91.9%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto25 ott 24, 23:02 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRegole
if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.
- The market resolves YES if he converts to Christianity in a meaningful way, ie if the average person would look at his actions and would describe him as having converted to christianity.
- Resolves NO in 2027 otherwise.
Mercati aperti
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volume totale
- 10,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5K €
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume totale
- 56,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 9,2K €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 118K €
- Volume 24h
- 4,3 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volume totale
- 797,6 €
- Volume 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume totale
- 674,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volume totale
- 3,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 92% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.