Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.9%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo25 ott 24, 23:02 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?
Manifold MarketsRegole
if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.
- The market resolves YES if he converts to Christianity in a meaningful way, ie if the average person would look at his actions and would describe him as having converted to christianity.
- Resolves NO in 2027 otherwise.
