Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 76.5%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto28 mar 24, 12:13 UTC1 gen 40, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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PolymarketRegole
Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.
- I will use my own judgement to decide if AI has started a war.
- If an AI convinces someone to launch a missile or fire a gun and it starts a war this will resolve yes.
- AI spreading misinformation that starts a war will also resolve yes.
- If AI is only used as a tool in war and doesn’t start it it will resolve no.
- If there is no consensus in 2040 the close date will be extended.