Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 95.9%
Previsori
104
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ott 22, 00:44 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?
Manifold Markets💰If the first $10 Trillion dollar company is NOT Apple or Microsoft, which company will it be?
Manifold MarketsSum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll and https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75, but for 2030 instead of 2023/2025, and a correspondingly looser definition of 'sudden'.
- For the sake of consistency, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems unclear to me.
- For convenience, what follows is the description of the orignal market this is based on:
- > I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people".
- It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI).
- Examples of things that would surely count:
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 228,5K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 239,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3K €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 96% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030??
- Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll and https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75, but for 2030 instead of 2023/2025, and a correspondingly looser definition of 'sudden'.