Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75.1%
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto1 dic 25, 14:07 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PolymarketTop Text to Video AI this week
KalshiWill "RA x ControlAI video: What if AI just keeps g..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.