Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 71.7%
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34
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto1 dic 25, 14:07 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Photo or video of any of twelve famous Americans playing pickleball through 2027
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Manifold MarketsTop Text to Video AI this week
KalshiWhich company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketRegole
e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.