Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 52.9%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mar 26, 18:50 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRegole
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 182,3K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 altri esiti
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 53% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030??
- Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?