Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 52.9%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mar 26, 18:50 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsHow long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
Manifold MarketsWill AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiWill Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
