Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 96.1%
Previsori
54
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto30 dic 23, 18:37 UTC31 dic 28, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Usha Vance convert to Christianity before the election?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volume totale
- 10,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5K €
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume totale
- 56,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 9,2K €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 118K €
- Volume 24h
- 4,3 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volume totale
- 797,6 €
- Volume 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume totale
- 674,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volume totale
- 3,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years??
- Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.