Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 63.7%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto19 mar 24, 20:05 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketRegole
Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.
- Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators.
- Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system.
- This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 64% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.