Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 57.9%
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Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
16 set 26, 05:37 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
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KalshiWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRegole
The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.
- Examples which would NOT resolve YES:
- An AI used for military purposes kills someone who it believes to be a valid target, even if they turn out not to be (for example, friendly fire)
- An autonomous vehicle avoids a potentially fatal collision, causing a different fatal collision, even if it was aware that this would be the result
- An industrial robot accidentally kills someone without being aware that this would happen
- A human kills someone or commits suicide after talking to an AI (for example, "AI psychosis")
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 58% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030??
- Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.