Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
GeopoliticaOne-Off14a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 82.7%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto28 gen 24, 03:03 UTC1 gen 41, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2050?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024).
- Including tests.
- Only count deaths directly related to the explosion within 10 days of the explosion.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040??
- Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2041.
- Come viene liquidato Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024).