Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 66.3%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto24 apr 23, 01:41 UTC1 gen 51, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves YES if any device meant to cause an explosion via a nuclear reaction is detonated at least 100 km above Earth's surface before the end of 2050.
- This does not include times that this has happened before the market was created (both the U.S. and the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons in space before nuclear test ban treaties prohibited it).
- It doesn't necessarily have to be a nuclear weapon.
- A nuclear explosive used for any purpose will count (e.g., destroying or redirecting asteroids that endanger Earth, nuclear thrusters, space mining).
- A device powered by a nuclear reactor doesn't count, even if that device is used to generate explosions - it has to be a nuclear explosion.
