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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

One-OffGeopoliticaMiddle East6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
Sì 1.2%
Previsori

27

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 giorni fa

Obsoleto
22 mar 26, 1:1231 dic 26, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes1%

Regole

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,612.98+1.75%EthereumETH$1,652.45+1.40%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.90%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.09%XRPXRP$1.12-0.25%BNBBNB$595.56+1.31%

Notizie Correlate

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsThe Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.NewsUS Sanctions Iran’s Nobitex Crypto Exchange Over Sanctions EvasionBlockchain.News

Regole

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.