Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
One-OffSalute e medicinaScienza8aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 71.3%
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto23 ott 23, 22:05 UTC2 gen 35, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
Background: Several startups and research labs are currently working on gametogensis with gay couples in mind.
- Quibbles: Stillbirths or abortions don't count; the child must be viable for at least a day postpartum. "Gay couple" for the purposes of this market means two biological males or two biological females (regardless of gender identity or sexual orientation), not necessarily in a relationship with each other.
- The couple does not need to birth or carry the child to term themselves; surrogates are allowed/expected.
- See also: @/MetaculusBot/when-will-we-see-the-first-viable-h-19ca28a5b59f
