Previsione della comunità attuale
No 73%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto23 ott 25, 12:00 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26
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PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegole
[image]Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if a model from a Chinese labs is listed at the top of the text leaderboard according to the Default sort at any point from now (Oct 23 2025) until EOY 2026.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 73% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [image]Resolution Criteria