Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75.8%
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10
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
5 set 26, 04:10 UTC8 ott 26, 12:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsI am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive:
- "artificial intelligence"
- "machine learning"
- "neural network" (or "neural networks")
- "deep learning"
- Otherwise resolves NO.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 76% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks??
- Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks? dovrebbe risolversi il 8 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive: