Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
One-OffIATecnologiaScienza2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 88.6%
No 88.6%Previsori
66
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto5 dic 22, 06:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsI am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI outperform the best human expert on machine learning R&D?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will solve P = NP?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Let's operationalize it this way:
- "If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."
